《保险研究》20240705-《第三支柱个人养老金税优政策的效应评析》（李辰）

［摘   要］税收优惠政策是撬动第三支柱养老金发展的重要杠杆。个人养老金制度实施一年多来,参保扩面成效显著,但开户、缴费、投资人数呈“倒金字塔”式减少。本文量化分析参与人获得的税收红利与政府税式支出下的财政承受能力。研究发现:个人养老金税优政策的真正受益范围有限,潜在参保群体中仅有不到8%能享受到税收红利；当前税收优惠形式单一,未向补充养老需求迫切群体倾斜,拉大了群体间待遇差距；税优政策设计缺乏激励性,EET模式下个人养老金的投资收益率与个人福利水平的增进不成正比；当前TEE基准模式下个人养老金产生的政府税式支出对地方财政影响甚微。本文建议:扩大受益范围,将中低收入群体、女性劳动者以及新型就业群体和无业者作为政策重点目标群体；政策设计向重点目标群体倾斜,在优惠形式和缴费限额等方面分类施策；强化税优政策激励性,对扣除社保后年收入低于9.6万元的中等收入群体实行EEE模式,同时建立缴费限额动态调整机制；密切关注国家财政承受能力,建立个人养老金政府税式支出预警机制。

［关键词］个人养老金；税收优惠；政策效应；税收红利；税式支出

［基金项目］研究阐释党的二十大精神国家社科基金重大项目“2035年我国多层次多支柱养老保险体系发展目标与现实路径研究”(23ZDA100)。

［作者简介］李辰,中国社会科学院大学政府管理学院博士研究生。

A Commentary on the Effects of Tax-advantaged Policies for Third-pillar Individual Pension Accounts:From Micro to Macro Perspectives

LI Chen

Abstract：Tax incentives are an important lever and the first driver to propel the development of the third pillar individual pension program.The program has been implemented for more than a year with wide participation,but the number of accounts,amount of contributions and investments have decreased in an "inverted pyramid" shape.This paper quantitatively analyzes the tax dividends received by participants versus the fiscal affordability of the government under the current tax expenditures.The study finds that the scope of participants actually benefitting from the tax-advantaged pension program is limited,with less than 8% of the potential participants enjoying the tax dividend.The current single form of tax incentive does not favor population groups with urgent needs for supplementary old-age care,thus further widens the welfare gap between different groups.The design of the tax-advantaged policy is not incentivizing,and under the EET model,the investment accumulation pattern of the individual pension is not proportional to the enhancement of individual welfare levels.Moreover,the government tax-based expenditure arising from the pension program under the current TEE benchmark model has little impact on local governments′ fiscal status.This paper suggests to expand the scope of population benefitting from the program and to shift the focus to low-and-middle income groups,female workers and employees of new types of businesses employed or jobless persons as priority target groups for the policy.Then the policies are designed in favour of these key target groups,offering differentiated plans in terms of preferential forms and contribution limits.The incentivizing effect of the program should be strengthened,implementing the EEE model for middle-income groups with annual incomes of 60,000 to 96,000 yuan after deducting social security contributions,as well as establishing a mechanism for dynamic adjustment of the contribution limits.Close attention should also be paid to the government′s fiscal capacity and establish an early warning mechanism for government tax expenditure on the individual pension program.

Key words：individual pension program;tax incentives;policy effects;tax dividends;tax expenditure