《保险研究》20230906-《长期护理保险制度的保障适度、财务平衡与筹资率》（张盈华）

［摘   要］长期护理保险中长期测算的理论依据不足，预测效果差别大。本文提出“保障适度”分析框架，解析参保密度、受益广度、保障充分度、待遇慷慨度和居民保障度等五个核心要素，采用财务平衡模型，预测筹资率及其变化。研究发现，各参数“低方案”下筹资率不高，2023~2042年筹资率为0.11%~0.17％，但受益面过窄；受益广度“高方案”对筹资率的影响最大，2023~2042年筹资率为0.47%~0.64%；多个参数同时“高方案”下，2023~2042年筹资率为0.74%~1.24%，移除受益广度后筹资率为0.16%~0.33%；延长受益广度向“高方案”的过渡期，可明显降低筹资率上升幅度，“20年过渡”下2023~2042年筹资率为0.16%~1.24%，“50年过渡”下筹资率为0.16%~0.66%。据此建议尽快形成“保障适度”共识，注重提待扩面的优先次序，并平衡好扩大受益面与筹资能力之间的关系。

［关键词］长期护理保险；保障适度；财务平衡；筹资率

［基金项目］国家社科基金重大项目“2035年我国多层次多支柱养老保险体系发展目标与现实路径研究”(23ZDA100)。

［作者简介］张盈华，中国社会科学院社会发展研究院副研究员。

Long-Term Care Insurance System:Proper Protection,Financial Balancing and Contribution Rates

ZHANG Ying-hua

Abstract：There is a lack of theoretical basis for projecting long-term care insurance,which affects the projection effect.This paper puts forward the analysis framework of “proper protection”,which incorporates five core factors including participation density,beneficiary wideness,protection adequacy,benefit generosity and residents′ coverage,and uses the financial balancing model to project the contribution rate and its changes.The results show that the contribution rate is 0.11%-0.17% from 2023 to 2042 with all parameters in the “low plan”,but the coverage of beneficiaries is quite narrow;the “high plan” beneficiary wideness impacts most and will raise the contribution rate from 0.47% to 0.64% during 2023 and 2042;in case of multiple parameters falling within the “high plan”,the contribution rate is 0.74% to 1.24% from 2023 to 2042,and the contribution rate will be 0.16% to 0.33% if removing the beneficiary wideness;longer transition period of beneficiary wideness to “high plan” helps reduce the increase of the contribution rate.;under the “20-year transition”,the contribution rate is 0.16%-1.24% from 2023 to 2042,and 0.16%-0.66% under the “50-year transition” .It is suggested to form a consensus on “proper protection”,pay attention to the priority of policies,and balance the relationship between beneficiary wideness and contribution capacity.

Key words：long-term care insurance;proper protection;financial balancing;contribution rate