《保险研究》20230804-《基于老年消费短缺风险的个人养老金收入策略研究》（王力平、隋杰）

［摘   要］养老金收入管理是个人养老金领取阶段的关键问题。本文利用生存年金和唐提计划作为长寿保障工具，以固定比例进行分期提取，设计个人养老金综合性收入策略；以长寿保障生效时间为主线，建立包括部分保障、定时保障和延迟保障的综合性收入策略体系；基于我国的微观调查数据，建立老年消费短缺风险最小化框架，并确定各个收入策略的最优决策；根据数值模拟结果，在时间窗口和初始禀赋两个维度下讨论最优收入策略，并形成综合性收入策略的优势布局。研究表明，综合性收入策略可以提供优于纯策略的消费短缺风险管理效果，匹配多样化的养老需求；年金类策略的平稳支付流可以更有效地支撑阶段性的养老消费，唐提类策略后期上扬的支付流可以更有效地提供长寿保障；延迟保障类策略兼具部分保障和定时保障的特征，具有更高的养老财富运用效率。

［关键词］个人养老金综合性收入策略；老年消费短缺风险；养老金收入管理；唐提计划

［作者简介］王力平，天津职业技术师范大学经济与管理学院讲师；隋杰，天津职业技术师范大学经济与管理学院讲师。

A Research on Individual Pension Income Strategy Based on the Elderly Consumption Shortfall Risk

WANG Liping,SUI Jie

Abstract：Pension income management is a key issue in individual pension′s decumulation phase.By using the annuity and tontine as tools for longevity protection,and fixed proportion as phased withdrawal plan,we design comprehensive income strategies of individual pension.Then,taking the effective time of longevity protection as the main line,the comprehensive income strategy system including partial protection,timed protection and delayed protection,is established.Based on the micro-survey data of our country,a framework for minimizing the risk of elderly consumption shortage is established,and the optimal decision of each income strategy is determined.According to the numerical simulation results,the optimal income strategy is discussed under the two dimensions of time window and initial endowment,and the advantaged layout of comprehensive income strategy is formed.The results show that the comprehensive income strategies can provide individuals with better consumption shortfall risk management effect than the pure strategy,and match the diversified needs of the elderly.The stable payment flow of annuity strategies can more effectively support the phased consumption,and the tontine strategy′s rising payment flow at the later stage can more effectively provide longevity protection.Delayed protection strategies take into account the characteristics of partial protection and timed protection,and have higher efficiency in the use of pension wealth.

Key words：comprehensive income strategy of individual pension;elderly consumption shortfall risk;pension income management;Tontine plan