《保险研究》20230404-《中国预期寿命变动70年：死亡年龄高龄化与分布尖峰化的双重视角》（张琼、郭子萱）

［摘   要］发达国家历史经验表明，死亡年龄高龄化和分布尖峰化是理解人口寿命延长的重要视角。本文搜集整理我国1957~2020年公开可得年份的死亡人口统计，运用统计方法对数据以及经典文献做法中可能存在的问题进行修正，之后估计各年死亡年龄分布的形状参数和众数，并对各时期预期寿命变化进行完全分解。结果表明：首先，近70年间我国总人口死亡年龄分布稳步右移，形状参数波动上升，前者对预期寿命变化的贡献接近93%；早期形状参数变化的贡献约为11%，随后降至约2%后又回升至5%左右，表明我国早期总人口死亡年龄分布动态右移同时在明显压缩，随后死亡年龄分布高龄化同时形状近似不变，近年来又表现出寿命延长同时健康状况重新趋同特征。其次，女性预期寿命持续高于男性且增长更快，死亡年龄分布“高龄化”是影响二者相应预期寿命变化最主要的因素；相比女性，男性死亡年龄分布形状参数变化对预期寿命变化的相对贡献明显更小，且随时间推移迅速弱化，表明男性预期寿命延长同时人群健康状况趋同特征相对不明显。

［关键词］死亡年龄分布；预期寿命；高龄化；尖峰化；完全分解

［基金项目］“中国—东盟区域发展省部共建协同创新中心科研专项和教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划联合资助”（CW202102）。

［作者简介］张琼，中国人民大学公共管理学院副教授；郭子萱，河南财政金融学院统计与数学学院助教。

China′s Life Expectancy in Its Past Seventy Years:Dual Aspects from High Age-at-death and Distribution Peaking

ZHANG Qiong,GUO Zi-xuan

Abstract：Historical experiences in developed countries have shown that the high age-at-death and distribution peaking are important perspectives for understanding the extension of life expectancy.This paper compiles publicly available mortality statistics in China from 1957 to 2020 and applies statistical methods to correct possible problems in data as well as in approaches of classical literature.It then estimates the shape parameters and modes of the age-at-death distribution for each year based on the Gompertz and Weibull models,and fully decomposes the change in life expectancy for each period.The results show that:firstly,the age-at-death distribution has steadily shifted rightward and the shape parameter has fluctuated upwards during the last 70 years,with the former contributing nearly 93% to the change in life expectancy.The contribution of the change in shape parameter is about 11% in the early years,then drops to about 2% before rebounding to about 5%,indicating the simultaneous delay and compression of age-at-death distribution in the early years,followed by rightward shift with approximately unchanged shape of the age-at-death distribution,and characteristics of longer life span and renewed convergence of health conditions in recent years.Secondly,female life expectancy continues to be higher and grows faster than that for men,and high age-at-death is the main driver of change in life expectancy for both.The relative contribution of the change in shape parameter is significantly smaller for men than that for women and weakens rapidly over time,suggesting that the increase in life expectancy for men is accompanied by a relative insignificant convergence in health status.

Key words：age-at-death distribution;life expectancy;high age-at-death;peaking;complete decomposition